October 29, 2004

I'm not going to sleep well for the next 5 days

And maybe not for 2 months afterwards, either. Edison Research has come up with multiple nightmare scenarios with regards to the Electoral College. Excerpt:

Scenario #1 – Electoral Vote Tie

Situation: The final Electoral Vote tally is 269 for Bush and 269 for Kerry.

Likelihood: Mathematically the chances are about 1 in 80, but the possible combinations of states that would create a 269-269 Electoral Vote tie are numerous. Simply by flipping New Hampshire and West Virginia from Bush to Kerry and having Kerry carry all of the states that Gore carried in 2000 would create an Electoral Vote tie.
Scenario #2 – The Proportional Electoral Vote Referendum in Colorado

Situation: Democrats have placed on the November 2nd ballot in Colorado a referendum that would change the method of allocating that state’s electoral votes. Currently like every other state, except Maine and Nebraska (which award electoral votes by Congressional District), Colorado awards all of its electors to the winner of the popular vote in the state. If this referendum passes, Colorado’s nine electoral votes would be awarded proportionally starting with the current election. If the electoral votes in Colorado had been awarded proportionally in 2000, Gore would have received three of Colorado’s eight electoral votes, and he would have won the electoral vote nationally 270 to 268. [Note that due to the new Census, Colorado has an additional electoral vote in 2004.]

Likelihood: First, the national electoral vote would need to be close enough for this procedure to make a difference. If there is a net swing of between 5 and 9 electoral votes from Bush to Kerry in the other 49 states then the outcome of the vote on this referendum would determine who is elected President.
Scenario #3 – Louisiana Senate run-off Election determines control of the Senate

Situation: Louisiana has a non-partisan primary for Senate scheduled for November 2nd. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote the top two finishers will face-off on Saturday, December 4th.

Likelihood: The Louisiana Senate is almost definitely going to go to a run-off. There are seven candidates on the ballot – one Republican, four Democrats and two Independents – so it will be almost impossible for one candidate to receive over 50% of the vote. The odds that control of the Senate is dependent upon this race are small but real. Currently the Senate composition is 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 1 Independent who votes with the Democrats (Jim Jeffords of Vermont). A net swing of one or two seats to the Democrats nationally will mean that Louisiana’s seat could be the one determining party control of the Senate.
Scenario #4 – Louisiana House run-offs determine control of the House of Representatives

Situation: As with the Senate race, Congressional elections in Louisiana require that a winning candidate receive 50% of the vote in order to avoid a December 4th run-off election. At least two Congressional Districts – and as many as four – in Louisiana are likely to have run-off elections on December 4th. If both parties are short of the 218 house seats needed for control, the outcomes of these run-offs would determine control of the House.

Likelihood: The Republicans currently have a 227-205 edge in the House (with one Democratic-leaning Independent and two formerly held vacant seats). If the Democrats have a net gain of 8-11 seats in the other 49 states, the Louisiana U.S. House races could determine control of the House. As of now the Democrats are unlikely to gain that many seats but it is still a possibility.

There's lots more. Read the whole thing. Try not to worry. Sure.

Update: Edison Research also provides us with a handy-dandy list of what to look for on election night.

Posted by: Physics Geek at 01:57 PM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
Post contains 634 words, total size 4 kb.

1 I *really* think that 2000's near-tie in the EC was a rare statistical fluke. Checking previous recent EC results, the winner usually has over 300. It won't be close enough for the Dems to cheat this year.

Posted by: Harvey at October 29, 2004 06:14 PM (tJfh1)

2 From your mouth to God's ears.

Posted by: physics geek at October 29, 2004 09:10 PM (Xvrs7)

3 Hey Harvey, you meant to say that we all hope it's not close again so that the REPUBLICANS can't steal the 2004 election like they did in 2000!

Posted by: George at November 02, 2004 09:40 PM (Ws+Xo)

4 Bush wining Florida by large margin this year is good evidence Gore tried to steal the election in 2000 -- and the Dems wanted to steal this election too – thank God they were foiled again –there never was disenfranchisement – maybe the republicans by the biased media -- but we seen the dems lies for what they were – accusations from ACORN and Michael Moore -- upstanding bunch. Florida and the nation came out AGAIN and voted for their candidate. We were mad as hell after the dems tried to steal the election and had the gall to say bringing the courts in to control the lawlessness was stealing the election. Bush was the first republican I voted for I decided to vote for him after a PBS showed Gores life and Bush's -- Bush was a real human Gore was a clone grew just for politics. My eyes were opened the day after the election to CNN’s bias – 4 hours of reporting and I never heard what I was thinking "Gore was trying to steal the election" – I was dumbfounded. I got online and discussed on a forum and I got an LOL re. My experience and a tip to watch FoxNews – I did not get brainwashed by watching FoxNews nor would I have changed if CNN was fair -- it really is due to CNN’s, MSNBC's crappy bias stories for mass exodus to FoxNews. That is how the major news sources are losing their power and influence -- they can't prop up the dems anymore ;( cBS tried to swing Florida for Gore last election by reporting the state early for Gore and then stating, "The polls in Florida are closed". The panhandle was still voting -- an hour left! Costing bush about 15,000 votes by independent accounting groups ... this time the message by Bush campaign -- no matter what you hear on the media just VOTE! Also this election they tried to hold the ammo story until the Sun. before the election -- and the fake document was over the top – the cBS people assigned to verify the documents would not so they got others to authenticate. They were propping up a bad candidate. And the folks were cheering for Bruce NOT Kerry. All the money in the world could not convince people to vote for Kerry in enough numbers – unless you paid them directly – now, that may eek out a win for your next bad candidate. The old left/media is off -- way off -- only reporting what creates a world they want to live in ... e.g. the oil for food scandal and daufler reporting – FoxNews had two specials out on the oil for food scandal before the daufler report came out. That report also mentioned how France, China and Russia were not upholding the sanctions and Saddam was getting richer and able to bribe country officials to not enforce sanctions and to help remove them. But did NBC cBS CNN report – very little – why – it vindicated the president, Tony Blair and Prime Minister Howard. The left is crazy if they think Iraq had nothing to do with terrorists – no money – no training – no support. Not even a player in the middle east problems. Why by this standard we shouldn't have been involved in World War I at all -- and World War II are only enemy was Japan -- Germany or Italy never did us no harm. I think the left needs to be honest and admit 2000 presidential was not stolen. You are a bunch of sore losers. Independent Re-count after recount found Bush was the winner of Florida even counting the partly discharged chads. To steal an election after the vote is tallied you need to hand count to "find" votes. The Oct. surprise of Bush's DUI didn't work for the dems. BTY bias FoxNews broke that story. It is possible that CNN may actually take the SwiftBoat Vets serious. Blame the current big losses on a bad candidate and bad/weak press coverage showing an unfair bias toward the left. The old media and left press wouldn't have had to ruin their credibility if they would have been objective from the start and question Kerry's credibility -- he still hasn't released his military records -- his site is bull -- only what he wants to revel. If the press were serious they would be as tough on dems as they are on republicans. Also, being a sore loser for four years did not help your cause. Bringing accusations and conspiricy theories about how bad and evil our president is did your party GREAT HARM. Be civil and honest and the dems may have a chance in four years. No more propaganda and silly rock concerts to prop up a clearly bad candidate. Most Americans want our leaders to care about values, family, faith, and preservation of our country. We don't mind the saying "In God we trust”, we don't mind the ten commandments -- they worked well thus far... oh, no the left should set the standards -- geez -- We also don't care for the hate pointed at a standing president and coming from Kerry just brought up his traitors ways of the past -- scary. If the dems want to win they need to get to the center and be nice or just act it ... act like you care about American's values -- and American values defined in politics are the values of the ones who vote for you. Also the media should also stand at attention the people demand the truth and will punish the peddlers of such hate and bias. And they only make money if people are watching.

Posted by: theresasp at November 04, 2004 08:21 AM (4moD1)

5 excellent, that was really well explained and helpful


Posted by: カジノ at January 10, 2005 03:16 AM (p9qZT)

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