October 15, 2008
What Im about to say will, if it works out to be true, cause Lawrence ODonnell to have a coronary on Nov. 5. In the immediate aftermath of Kerrys loss to Bush in 2004, ODonnell called for blue states to secede from the Union. So, we will need a volunteer in the blogosphere to stay with ODonnell on election night with a portable defibrillator in order to zap him back to life.
ASSUMING that the pre-election polling is close to accurate, if Obama is leading in the national polls coming out of the final weekend by 52% or less, hes going to lose. If hes at 53% itll probably be very close, but he may still lose. If its 54% or above, he will win. And its not the Bradley Effect.
Why does he have to be that high? Its the revenge of the small-states-on-steroids in the electoral college. The math is actually pretty simple, although some assumptions have to be made about turnout and victory margin in specific states (i.e., that current polls in those states are close to being accurate).
Anyway, time to update my picks:
1) Virgina: I continue to predict that McCain will carry the state, albeit by a 2%-5% margin.
2) Colorado: I still have it in the One's win column. I also stand my prediction that if Obama loses CO, he's done.
3) Florida: McCain wins. Very, very close.
4) Ohio: McCain hangs in an wins by a smaller margin than Bush over Kerry.
5) New Hampshire: I think that I might have been wrong last time. NH will probably stay blue. In fact, I think that NH flipping red would be a sign that Obama should start working on his re-election plans for the Senate. As it stands now, I don't think that will be the case.
6) Pennsylvania: This one has gotten a lot tougher. Polls show a consistent small edge for Obama, but, for some reason, he's spending a lot of time and money there, more than I would think is necessary if the race were already sewn up. And Murtha just called western PA a bunch of racists, which I'm sure will play well in that part of the state. Anyway, I think that Obama probably carries the state by the slimmest of margins, at least right now.
7) The rest of the states remain their election day 2004 color, except for New Mexico, which will flip back to blue.
Oh yeah, those one or two precincts in Nebraska and Maine which cast electoral votes in a non-winner take all manner are probably up for grabs. It would be more than interesting if those two districts actually determined the electoral vote winner.
Where does that leave us as far as electoral votes? I could look it up, but I'm lazy. I will make a final prediction the day before the election. In the interim, I plan to try and ignore politics here just so that I can retain my sanity.
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