October 22, 2004
Kerry picks up one Bush state from 2000 (New Hampshire, with 4 electoral votes). Bush has a slight advantage in all the three closest states--Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin--of which he won only Ohio in 2000. If the other 47 states all follow Tradesports' expectations, Bush wins if he carries either Ohio or both Iowa and Wisconsin. Kerry needs Ohio along with either Iowa or Wisconsin.
So all my hopes do not rest with Ohio. As much as I want those 20 EV's to end up in Bush's tally, picking up Iowa and Wisconsin would be just fine, too. However, with all of the cheating bullshit that the Kerry campaign seems determined to try, it might not be enough. God help us all if these third world, Banana Republic tactics work.
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